The estimate indicates a downward revision of 31 million tonnes compared to the previous forecast. It was stated that the revision was made in line with updated expectations regarding scrap supply by country.
The statement noted that proportional declines are expected in scrap generation forecasts from China and developed countries. In contrast, expectations for scrap generation from developing countries excluding China were revised upward. Accordingly, projections for the regional distribution of production were adjusted.
Despite the downward revision to the total global scrap generation forecast, the 2050 level is still estimated to be 36.1% higher than in 2020. This increase corresponds to approximately 232 million tonnes.
The data indicate that global ferrous scrap generation is expected to continue increasing gradually in the coming years, while calculations regarding the share of scrap supply in total steel production have also been updated in the long-term projections.
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