Worldsteel forecasts that global steel production in 2021 will rise to 1,855.4 Mt.This 4.5% year-on-year increase in steel production for the current year slightly less than 5.8%, forecast in April report. In 2022, Worldsteel expects a 2.2% slowdown in growth rates, but production will reach 1,896.4 million tons.
As the analysts of the association point out, this year the coronavirus has practically not had a negative impact on the economies of Western countries, but its impact has been noticeable and devastating in some Asian countries, notably India, Vietnam and China. But by 2022, this factor is expected to disappear worldwide.
China switched to a policy of limiting steel production in the middle of this year. However, Worldsteel reflects an objective slowdown in the national economy, especially in the construction sector. Although the apparent consumption of steel products in China in January-August increased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, for 2021 as a whole, Worldsteel forecasts a 1.0% decrease. According to the experts of the association, there will be no growth in metal consumption in China in 2022.
For a group of emerging and emerging market economies, Worldsteel projects an 11% increase in apparent consumption in 2021 and a 5% increase in 2022. At the same time, the April forecast for India and Vietnam was revised down. Latin America will see a rapid recovery in demand this year, increasing by 23.6% compared to last year, but will be replaced by stagnation in 2022 due to structural problems.
In Russia, after a slight decrease in 2020, a steady increase in steel product consumption is expected in 2021 and 2022. According to Worldsteel analysts, the main sources will be the automotive industry and government support for housing and infrastructure construction.
Furthermore, Worldsteel foresees a recovery in the markets of Western countries, after falling 12.7% in 2020, increasing consumption by 12.2% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022, which will allow them to rise above the pre-crisis level. At the same time, analysts of the association say that the United States is very optimistic. The April forecast for North America for 2021 indicates a 7.6% increase in apparent demand, while the October forecast rose to 13.6%. A positive forecast is also given for the EU - an increase of 12.7% in the consumption of steel products compared to last year.
Worldsteel analysts' calculations do not take into account recent events, particularly rising energy prices and accelerating inflation in Western countries. Therefore, it seems likely that the actual indicators for some countries will be lower than anticipated.
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