In 2022, the stagnation observed in EU steel-using sectors led to an 8% decline. In 2023 and 2024, apparent steel consumption contracted by 6% and 1.1%, respectively. For 2025, the projected decline is 0.2%, a more moderate figure compared to the previous forecast (-0.9%). In 2026, a 3.1% recovery in consumption is expected (previous forecast: 3.4%), yet volumes will remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Overview of the EU Steel Market
In the first quarter of 2025, apparent steel consumption rose by 2.2% y-o-y to 33.8 million tons. Domestic deliveries increased by 1.4%, while the full-year decline in 2024 stood at 2.8%. Total steel imports into the EU decreased by 0.6% in Q1 2025, with the share outside of consumption at 25%. In the second quarter of 2025, imports fell by 3%.
Steel-Using Sectors and Production Outlook
In Q1 2025, the Steel Weighted Industrial Production Index (SWIP) recorded a 3.2% decline for the fifth consecutive quarter (previous quarter: -4.6%). Until the end of 2023, EU steel-using sectors showed limited resilience despite the Russia-Ukraine war, overall weak production, and global geopolitical tensions. However, the positive production trend that began after the pandemic continued to decline until Q4 2023, pressured by rising energy costs and component shortages.
High inflation in the EU and the ECB’s interest rate hikes suppressed steel-using sector production throughout 2024. Construction, mechanical engineering, household appliances, and fabricated metal products—particularly automotive—were the most affected by supply chain issues and volatility in global trade.
In 2023, production in steel-using sectors increased by 1.7% (revised from +1.6%), but in 2024 it fell by 3.6% y-o-y (revised from -3.7%). Construction declined by 2%, while automotive dropped by 9.8%. Due to U.S. tariffs and global uncertainties, a moderate recession of -0.7% is expected in 2025 (previous: -0.5%), followed by a limited recovery of +1.8% in 2026.
The report underlines that the recovery of apparent steel consumption in 2025 and 2026 will depend on improvements in industrial outlook, as well as easing global trade and geopolitical tensions.
Conclusions
EU steel-using sectors contracted in 2024 due to declines in construction and automotive. The 2025–2026 outlook remains overshadowed by a combination of high tariffs, weak manufacturing conditions, geopolitical tensions, and economic challenges. Despite repeated monetary easing in the Eurozone, its effects are unlikely to be felt in the short term.
Production grew by 2.9% in 2022, but SWIP growth slowed to 1.7% in 2023. In 2024, growth in steel-using sectors fell to -3.6% (previous: -3.3%), mainly due to stagnation in construction and automotive.
In 2025, a milder contraction is expected (-0.7%, previous: -0.5%), with automotive production forecast to decline by 4.2% and construction to grow slightly by 0.4%. The construction sector is expected to benefit partially from monetary easing. In 2026, SWIP is projected to grow by a modest 1.8% (previous: +1.3%).
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