In the Türkiye steel market, the decline in demand for both domestic and imported products is causing prices to trend downward. This decrease in demand continues to exert pressure on prices, compounded by falling imported scrap prices.
Türkiye's rebar sector is grappling with the difficulties posed by global oversupply and low demand. Falling scrap prices and stagnation in both domestic and export markets are among the biggest problems for the sector. The global oversupply exceeding demand has nearly eliminated expectations for price and volume growth within the sector.
In the domestic market, rebar prices show regional variations but generally range between $555-565/ton. In İzmir, prices have fallen to as low as $555/ton, while in the Marmara Region, ex-works prices are observed at $565/ton. İçdaş has kept its official dollar-based price stable at $580/ton, while buyers can purchase at $560/ton.
In Q4 2024, scrap prices dropped to $335/mt CFR, hitting a two-year low. However, despite this, rebar prices in Türkiye remained largely stable. The spread between Turkish export rebar and imported scrap reached its highest level of $230/mt last year.
The global economic slowdown and high interest rates continue to negatively affect both individual and corporate investment decisions. This situation continues to suppress demand for rebar. However, the 30% minimum wage increase announced at the start of 2025 is not expected to negatively impact the competitiveness of Türkiye's steel producers in global markets in the short term.
Rising expectations for reconstruction activities in Syria are fostering hope in Türkiye's rebar sector. If construction activities in Syria recover, demand from Türkiye, particularly from the Iskenderun region, is expected to increase. However, experts note that this demand will grow gradually and slowly, making it unlikely to have an immediate impact on markets.
The unstable trend also applies to Türkiye rebar, which is still seeing limited demand even at the $570-575/ton FOB range. New demand from Syria could create an imbalance in the domestic market's supply-demand dynamics and lead to price increases. However, for this to happen, reconstruction projects need to accelerate, and demand must grow steadily.
In the billet market, similarly, weak demand continues to pressure prices. Russian-origin billets are trading at $440-445/ton FOB Black Sea, while the last applicable level for Türkiye is $460/ton CFR.
Despite being overshadowed by challenging global conditions, Türkiye's rebar sector has the opportunity to increase its potential with new markets like Syria. How the market responds to both global and regional developments in 2025 will be closely monitored.
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