China’s steel market continued to face declining prices in early October 2025, following the downward trend in September. High inventories after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, combined with weak demand, put significant pressure on prices. As a result, the average prices of hot-rolled coil and rebar fell in the first half of October compared to September. However, raw material prices prevented a steeper decline.
Despite this drop, market participants are approaching the coming month with cautious optimism. Prices are expected to rise slightly, driven by several factors:
* Increased construction demand with cooler temperatures and the start of infrastructure projects.
* Potential supply reduction due to lower factory profit margins amid stable raw material prices.
* Positive macroeconomic expectations ahead of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee meeting and discussions on the 15th Five-Year Plan.
This optimism is tempered by the approaching winter, which typically slows construction activity, and the threat of rising global trade tensions. Overall, October is expected to end with stable or slightly weaker pricing, unless economic stimulus packages fall short of expectations and inventories remain high.
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