Asuman Gürsoy, SOGAD Secretary General, emphasized that 2025 was marked by high uncertainty, rising costs, and growing global protectionism, while risks for 2026 are expected to deepen even further.
Access to finance became difficult, predictability disappeared
Gürsoy described 2025 as a year in which the world was unprepared for positive developments, waves of uncertainty surged, easy gains disappeared, and the gap between dreams and reality widened. She highlighted that access to finance became more difficult and external funding opportunities decreased, making it nearly impossible to prepare sound budgets or make long-term forecasts in an unpredictable environment. Geopolitical risks intensified, protective measures and related trade wars became more damaging, and sustainability emerged as a priority like never before.
The industry must reassess its strategies
Under these conditions, Gürsoy stressed that the sector needs to question its strategies and ask whether it is truly addressing “What is right, what works, what matters?” She noted that boldness alone is no longer sufficient and warned that significant opportunities in industrial revolutions have been missed. She emphasized the importance of assessing whether appropriate financing models have been developed to align with global trends, achieve regional and global branding, and enable rapid transformation and renewal.
Human resources and equal opportunities highlighted
Gürsoy underlined that human resources are critical for the sector’s future, particularly ensuring equal opportunities for youth and women. She noted that without hope, there can be no dreams, and the sector’s future will be built on these dreams.
Shift in growth perspective, focus on environment and energy
Gürsoy noted that 2025 marked a shift from a growth-focused economic mindset toward emphasizing environmental and energy efficiency. For energy-intensive Türkiye, predictability has become even more critical, and she emphasized that the climate crisis is a central factor for sustainability. She also highlighted that 2025 represented important steps for Türkiye toward creating a better future for nature, people, and society, underlining the importance of cultural transformation and transparency.
High costs weakened competitiveness
Gürsoy explained that high production costs in 2025 prevented competitive pricing, causing export markets, particularly China, to be lost. Domestically, restrictions on exports to the EU and the U.S. increased supply pressure, creating a highly competitive environment. Production continued with minimal profits or break-even margins, and she noted that product prices were increasingly determined by declining demand and rising supply rather than costs.
New investments fell short of expectations
New high-investment facilities capable of producing for the automotive and white goods sectors were unable to meet expectations due to adverse market conditions. These facilities faced domestic market constraints and had to compete with increasing low-priced imports.
DIR (Inward Processing Regime) changes raised concerns
Gürsoy addressed risks to Türkiye’s largest export market, Europe, highlighting that changes to the Inward Processing Regime (DIR) caused significant concern. She noted that the new regulations shortened DIR certificate periods and imposed a minimum 25% domestic content requirement on products used in exports. While this pleased domestic hot-rolled sheet producers, it negatively affected cold-rolled, coated sheet, and pipe manufacturers.
45% of flat steel exports at risk
Gürsoy emphasized that the steel sector is not limited to liquid steel production but encompasses a long value chain. The sectors most affected by the new regulations will be cold-rolled and coated sheet production, which account for 45% of flat steel exports, representing USD 2.1 billion and forming a key part of the industry.
Cost increases in the pipe sector could be devastating
Pipe producers in Türkiye have a 7.5 million ton capacity and USD 2 billion in exports, making them the world’s fourth-largest producer. Gürsoy warned that the DIR changes could directly threaten their competitive advantage, as flat steel accounts for 60–80% of final product costs in these sectors, meaning even small cost increases could have catastrophic effects.
Document deadlines could block the supply chain
If the DIR regulations continue, limiting certificate periods to six months could disrupt the production supply export chain. The 25% domestic content requirement could create supply-demand imbalances, increase costs, reduce exports, decrease foreign currency revenue, and negatively affect value creation and employment.
Criticism of the metal sector circular
Gürsoy criticized the September 17, 2025, metal sector circular for restricting the 25% domestic content requirement to only slabs (HS 7207) and hot-rolled sheets (HS 7208), arguing that this limits the overall effectiveness. She suggested expanding it to include cold-rolled, galvanized, and coated sheets for a fairer and more comprehensive impact.
DIR import–export balance warning
She highlighted that DIR imports account for only 10% of total imports and DIR exports 40% of total exports, while DIR steel imports represent only 2% of total imports. She warned that a 10% focus on imports could cause a 40% negative impact on exports.
Anti-dumping investigation expected
Another key development in 2025 was the anti-dumping investigation by SOGAD into cold, galvanized, and coated sheet imports from South Korea and China. Gürsoy emphasized the urgent need for its resolution.
New financial burden with CBAM
Gürsoy noted that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effective January 1, 2026, introduces a new financial burden, affecting not only final products but the entire production chain. Producers able to provide verifiable emissions data gain a competitive advantage, while those unable face market loss risk.
EU’s new protection measures threaten exports
She also addressed the EU’s proposed stricter steel import protection measures, which could effectively block free trade and close export channels for Türkiye’s steel sector.
A tougher outlook for 2026
Concluding her assessment, Gürsoy warned that with global oversupply growing, 2026 is likely to be even more challenging for the sector following a difficult 2025, wishing all producers a healthy and prosperous year where their efforts are duly rewarded.
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