Pig iron prices at Black Sea ports have increased amid strengthening demand from Türkiye. Growing purchases by Turkish steelmakers pushed prices to around $310/t FOB by mid-December, reflecting a moderate monthly increase. Suppliers have largely sold January production volumes, with some exporters already offering material for February, and several contracts have been concluded during this period.
Türkiye remains the main export market for Russian pig iron. During the first ten months of the year, shipments from Russia to Türkiye rose by almost 109% year on year to approximately 1.44 million tonnes, accounting for about 78% of total imports. October deliveries showed particularly strong growth. In contrast, exports from Kazakhstan declined over the same period, while supplies from Ukraine increased only slightly.
Pig iron production in Russia has declined less sharply than other steel products. Output for January–November fell only marginally compared with the previous year, while production of rolled steel and pipes recorded much steeper reductions. This relative stability in pig iron output has supported export volumes despite broader weakness in parts of the steel sector.
Rising scrap prices have also supported demand. Following export restrictions on scrap from the EU and the United States, pig iron has become a more attractive alternative feedstock for steelmakers in Türkiye. Looking ahead, demand may also be influenced by stricter environmental regulation in the EU from 2026. The introduction of a carbon-based import mechanism could improve the competitive position of Turkish producers supplying lower-emission electric steel, potentially sustaining demand for pig iron from Russia.
At the same time, analysts do not expect the current price increase to be long-lasting. The recent rise is viewed as a short-term correction linked to seasonal scrap price growth in Türkiye and a temporary strengthening of raw material demand. No significant improvement is anticipated in global steel markets, while surplus supply of Russian pig iron is expected to persist due to limited export destinations.
Outside Türkiye, experts see few drivers for higher pig iron demand. In China, producers are expected to focus on reducing excess capacity and maximizing the use of domestic raw materials. In India, imports are likely to be required only intermittently, when local production is insufficient to fully load capacity. As a result, Türkiye is expected to remain the key market supporting Russian pig iron exports in the near term.
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