Rising energy costs could push metal prices further

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently gave a stern speech about forcing “unfriendly countries” to pay for Russian gas in rubles, leaving us wondering how this will affect aluminum and steel prices.

There are fears that Russia's economic isolation will begin to affect aluminum or steel prices. These impacts will put more of a burden on producers trying to catch up with the pandemic.
As condemnation of the invasion of Ukraine continues to mount, experts think Putin is looking for ways to support his country's beleaguered economy while tightening his control over Europe's energy supply.

Of course, demand for the Ruble is hot after much debate focused on whether Russia should cut off its natural gas and oil supplies altogether. This is a potential worst-case scenario for global energy prices. And although Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently assured the BBC that this will not happen, skepticism – and hence price instability – remains.

It is unlikely that Russia will simply “turn out the lights” on everyone.
"My view is that Russia desperately needs revenue from oil and gas," said Stuart Burns, MetalMiner co-founder. said. "This means they are unlikely to unilaterally shut down or severely restrict supply."

Putin remains unpredictable and could become even more unpredictable if cornered by the deteriorating war effort.