Deep-sea imported scrap prices continue to move sideways as producers struggle with squeezed margins. Demand in the finished steel segment remains extremely weak, almost nonexistent. Recent scrap purchases in Türkiye have been driven largely by the need to fulfill existing contracts rather than by new orders, highlighting a pattern of compulsory procurement rather than fresh buying interest. Many producers are also keeping the option of short-term production stoppages on the table to better manage costs and gain time if needed.
In Europe and the Baltic region, severe winter conditions are disrupting physical flows, while growth expectations for 2026 fail to signal a meaningful recovery for the sector. On the other hand, intensified discussions around carbon emission reductions are seen as a positive development from a medium- to long-term transformation perspective. Possible adjustments to scrap policies and the potential introduction of a chrome export tax also remain on the industry’s agenda. In addition, several new trade measures targeting steel products are expected to be implemented over the course of the year.
Overall, the outlook suggests that downside risks in scrap prices are strengthening. Market participants indicate that a $20 per tonne correction toward the end of February or early March would not come as a surprise. In the short term, expectations for a strong rebound remain very limited.
Meanwhile, Turkish steel producers continue to operate with tight margins, particularly in the long products and rebar segments, due to weak domestic construction demand and limited export orders. Domestic collection constraints and relatively stable international freight rates are supporting sellers’ efforts to maintain their offer levels. However, unless there is a clear improvement on the demand side, the fragile market environment is expected to persist.
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