While markets in Türkiye were closed due to the Kurban Bayramı holiday, geopolitical developments, logistics disruptions, and regional demand conditions remained the key drivers of pricing in the global steel sector throughout May. In particular, interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East strained supply chains, while weak demand in China limited downside price pressure despite cost support. Europe continued to reflect economic stagnation, while increasing import demand in Iran created new opportunities for CIS producers. All price indications in this analysis refer to figures reported in the final week of May.
Gulf region: Hormuz crisis increased costs
In May, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz became one of the most important issues in the MENA region. Problems in maritime transport increased freight and insurance costs, while GCC countries experienced significant raw material supply constraints.
In Saudi Arabia, narrowing import channels pushed producers toward domestic scrap. Scrap prices increased by USD 13 per ton, reaching the USD 430–460 per ton range. Domestic billet prices reached USD 660–680 per ton EXW, while rebar traded at USD 760–770 per ton.
In the United Arab Emirates, global supply restrictions and rising Asian freight rates pushed imported billet prices to USD 570–575 per ton CPT. EMSTEEL rebar prices remained at USD 768 per ton CPT, while domestic prices increased to USD 803 per ton EXW. Due to the Hajj season and the upcoming holiday period, market participants adopted a wait and see approach at the end of the month.
Bahrain and Kuwait were less affected by the crisis. In Bahrain, rebar offers were maintained at USD 690 per ton EXW, while in Kuwait prices moved in the USD 670–685 per ton range.
North Africa remained strong on demand support
Despite logistical pressure in the Gulf, North African producers had a relatively stronger May. In Algeria, strong domestic demand continued to support prices. AQS rebar export offers stood at USD 585 per ton FOB, while domestic prices ranged between USD 730–742 per ton EXW, helping producers preserve margins.
Egypt maintained a balanced outlook in both long and flat steel products. Rebar export prices stood at USD 620 per ton FOB, while hot rolled coil export prices were at USD 650 per ton FOB. The country also kept billet import prices at USD 525–530 per ton CFR, supporting cost control in production.
Iran: weaker demand, Lebanon remained cautious
Unlike rising regional costs, downward pressure dominated Iran’s steel market. Due to currency movements and expectations of further price decreases, major buyers delayed purchases. Slowdowns in infrastructure projects also weighed on demand. Rebar prices were in the USD 410–420 per ton EXW range, while billet export offers remained at USD 405–412 per ton FOB.
In Lebanon, importers continued to closely monitor volatility in global raw material prices and regional geopolitical risks. Rebar prices were formed at approximately USD 635 per ton CFR, while companies maintained low inventory policies.
China: cost support persists
In Far East markets, despite recent price increases, the overall outlook remained cautious. Urban renewal projects announced under China’s 15th Five Year Plan and rising raw material costs supported prices, but weak end user demand limited upside momentum.
China’s hot rolled coil export offers increased to USD 520 per ton FOB, while iron ore prices stood at USD 105 per ton CFR. Southeast Asia billet prices reached USD 485 per ton. However, producers continued operating with acceptable margins, and no significant production cuts are expected.
High port inventories of iron ore continued to exert pressure on prices, while tight supply conditions persisted in the coking coal market. At the end of April, iron ore stocks in Chinese ports declined to 172.16 million tons. In May, domestic prices for long and flat products increased by 1% to 3.8%.
Türkiye scrap market: holiday silence
In Türkiye, the scrap market remained quiet due to reduced transaction volumes ahead of the Kurban Bayramı holiday. Producers preferred to wait for post holiday finished steel demand before initiating new purchases.
The cost advantage of lower Chinese billet prices against scrap added pressure on imported scrap prices. However, deep sea freight rates, strong collection costs in Europe, and limited supplier margins prevented sharper price declines. Post holiday restocking activity and June pricing in the US domestic scrap market are expected to guide market direction.
Europe: demand remains weak
European steel markets continued to reflect weak demand in the final week of May. Construction sector stagnation and slower industrial activity kept pressure on both long steel and hot rolled coil markets.
In Italy, rebar prices ranged between EUR 710–750 per ton EXW, while in Northern Europe prices stood at EUR 710–730 per ton EXW. Hot rolled coil prices were at EUR 680 per ton in Northern Europe and EUR 660–680 per ton EXW in Italy.
The EU’s planned trade protection measures for July and CBAM implementation continue to be closely monitored. However, high inventory levels and material already in transit are limiting expectations for a short term recovery.
Iran demand created opportunities for CIS producers
Supply constraints in Iran’s flat steel market created new export opportunities for CIS producers, especially Russia and Kazakhstan. Iranian buyers were actively negotiating with Russian and Kazakh suppliers, while some domestic producers also evaluated import options.
MMK’s hot rolled coil offers stood at USD 575 per ton FOB, with some large volume transactions reportedly concluded USD 10–15 per ton below this level. Kazakhstan’s Qarmet offered hot rolled coil at USD 600 per ton FOB Aktau.
Global market overview
Global steel prices remained broadly stable. In the Black Sea, Russian billet prices were unchanged at USD 485 per ton FOB, while Tangshan 150 mm billet prices remained at CNY 3,020 per ton EXW. In Southeast Asia, billet offers to the Philippines stood at USD 495 per ton CFR, while offers to Türkiye were at USD 510 per ton CFR.
In flat steel products, China hot rolled coil export prices were at USD 513 per ton FOB. In Vietnam, prices decreased to USD 585 per ton CFR, while Indian origin offers were around USD 580 per ton CFR in the Vietnamese market.
In raw materials, 62% Fe iron ore increased to USD 104.5 per ton CFR China, while premium hard coking coal prices remained stable at USD 244 per ton FOB. Overall, the slight increase in iron ore and the decline in scrap prices eased cost pressures, while supply risks in coking coal continued to support the market.
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