The European Commission (EC) is set to initiate an anti-dumping (AD) investigation into Indian hot rolled coil (HRC) imports, along with imports from select other countries. The decision is expected to be confirmed by Tuesday.
A participant in the European steel market noted that while the probe's decision is imminent, its impact will likely be felt by February or March 2025. Indian market insiders are aware of the impending investigation but are waiting for an official notification from the European bloc to assess its potential impact on India's steel exports. Another source suggests that the AD investigation might not significantly affect Indian HRC exports, as these exports to the EU have already been limited in the April-June quarter.
The Indian Steel Association (ISA), representing the country's domestic steelmakers, did not provide a comment by the deadline, nor did the Indian Ministry of Steel and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
According to Eurometal data, Indian-origin HRC imports to the EU reached 226,200 tons by August 5, already consuming 75% of the third-quarter safeguard quota.
Last week, the EC informed authorities in India, Japan, and Vietnam of its plans to launch an AD investigation following a complaint requesting the probe into HRC imports. This move comes shortly after India reportedly rejected the EU’s proposal for higher taxes on carbon-emitting industries under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
The momentum for AD investigations has been building recently. In July, India's steel ministry urged the trade ministry to investigate cheaper steel imports from China and Vietnam. Concurrently, Vietnam launched its own investigation into Chinese and Indian HRC imports.
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