In the domestic Chinese market, HRC prices are moving sideways at around USD 475–478/t, while weak demand continues to stand out, with purchasing activity still largely need based. On the export side, spot transactions remain weak at around USD 480–482/t, while even though major producers are offering levels close to USD 500/t FOB, actual deals are reported to be concluded at lower levels.
Vietnam’s introduction of a new 27.83% duty on Chinese imports has effectively closed one of China’s key outbound channels. The sharp decline in transaction numbers from 153 to 57 clearly reflects this impact. This gap is accelerating redirection toward alternative markets such as Pakistan, where CFR levels are reported around USD 505–515/t, while margins are tightening significantly.
Meanwhile, the re emergence of VAT free offers in the market highlights the scale of pressure within China. The return of such transactions at key ports such as Jingtang and Bayuquan indicates the intensity of inventory reduction pressure on producers. The decline in Chinese rebar prices to around USD 448–451/t further demonstrates how widespread the contraction in domestic demand has become, with weather conditions also contributing to market weakness.
Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, continues to diverge from China. Strong players in the Vietnamese market are gaining pricing power in line with protective measures applied against China, and the market is increasingly shifting toward Vietnam. For May and June shipments, the USD 545–555/t range is now established as the new reference level, while import prices have moved to USD 530–535/t CFR. Indonesian origin HRC prices have increased to USD 580–600/t CFR due to freight impact, although it is reported that they are struggling to find buyers.
Geopolitical risks are now fully reflected in pricing. Security issues in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are significantly slowing trade flows. Vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope is extending delivery times by more than 20 days while also increasing freight and insurance costs. The clearest impact of this is visible in the European HRC market. Indian origin hot rolled coil prices in Europe have risen to USD 680–690/t CFR Antwerp, which is approximately USD 60–70/t higher compared to pre conflict levels.
Within this overall picture, Indian producers increasing their HRC prices by USD 10–40/t to a range of USD 625–656/t and successfully closing sales at these levels indicates a strong divergence in India’s positioning within the Far East market.
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