The World Trade Organization (WTO) published global trade in goods data for the first quarter of 2025. According to the data, global trade in goods increased by 5.3% on an annual basis in the first three months of the year and by 3.6% compared to the previous quarter. This growth was mainly driven by the expectations that the US would increase tariffs.
On April 2, ahead of the new tariff announcements, importers pulled their purchases to the first quarter in order to avoid paying higher tariffs. This movement of front-loaded imports accelerated trade in goods, especially in the North American region.
North American imports increased by 13.4%
Regional data revealed that import growth varied geographically. North America recorded by far the highest import growth with 13.4%, followed by Africa with 5.1%, South and Central America and the Caribbean with 3.6%. Imports from the Middle East increased by 3%, Europe by 1.3% and Asia by 1.1%.
Middle East and Asia stand out in exports
On the export side, the Middle East was the region with the strongest growth in the first quarter with an increase of 6.3%. It was followed by Asia with 5.6%, South America with 3.2%, Africa with 2.5% and North America with 1.8%.
16% increase in office and telecom equipment
On a product basis, office and telecommunication equipment recorded the highest trade growth in the first quarter, increasing by 16% y/y. This group was followed by chemicals with 12% and clothing products with 7%.
There is also an increase in value terms
The value of world trade in goods in US dollars, measured by seasonally unadjusted exports, increased by 4% y/y in the first quarter.
Expectation of a slowdown: 0.1% growth for the year as a whole
WTO economists expect trade to slow for the rest of the year, despite a strong increase in the first quarter, as high inventory levels and increasing tariffs weigh on import demand. According to forecasts made in mid-June, global goods trade growth is expected to remain flat at just 0.1% in 2025.
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