According to Fitch Ratings, in 2022, global consumption of steel products will decrease by 60-65 million tons compared to the previous year. It will also decrease by approximately 20-30 million tons to the share of China, where apparent demand for steel has decreased due to the COVID restrictions and the crisis in the residential construction industry.
According to forecasts made in December or early November, the Chinese government will not be able to overcome the decline in the construction sector in 2023 and growth in the infrastructure sector will slow down. This will lead to the apparent consumption of steel products in China continuing to decline in 2023.
Fitch is also pessimistic about the future of the European Union. Problems such as high energy prices, declining production in metal-consuming industries and negative economic prospects will remain valid in 2023. Therefore, apparent steel consumption in the EU will also continue to shrink.
At the same time, according to Fitch Ratings, India, Turkey, Brazil, the United States, Southeast Asian countries have more positive economic prospects for the coming year. In total, the increase in the consumption of steel products here will exceed the decline in Europe and China by 25-35 million tons, which will provide an overall increase on a global scale.
In 2023, steel product prices will roughly reach 2021 levels. Raw material and energy costs for metallurgists will remain relatively high, leading to some deterioration in financial performance.
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