Optimistic expectations regarding the Politburo meeting scheduled for December are shaping the overall direction of the Chinese market. The belief that the country will adopt a looser fiscal stance until 2030 pushed 62% Fe and 65% Fe CFR North China iron ore indices higher. Despite this positive macro sentiment, physical spot trade remained weak. Thin steel margins are under pressure, continuing to support the downward trend in coking coal prices.
Traders continue purchasing Australian-origin cargoes as long as domestic prices remain high and import margins can be captured; however, it is uncertain to what extent steel mills will take these cargoes. Domestic billet prices rose to USD 415/ton midweek but have remained stable over the past three days. Shanghai Futures Exchange construction rebar prices are similarly trading sideways. Demand is weak, export interest is limited, and mills are reluctant to cut production, leaving the market without a clear direction.
China’s 2025 export performance remains strong. In October, the country exported 9.78 million tons of steel products, bringing the total shipments for January–October to 97.7 million tons. Quantities increased by 6.6% compared with the same period last year, while values decreased by 1.8%. The most notable increase occurred in rebar, with October shipments rising 28.1% and a total increase of 45.9% in the first ten months. In contrast, although monthly billet volumes decreased, the annual trend continues upward.
Key factors maintaining uncertainty in the market outlook are weak domestic demand, a fragile real estate sector, and a contraction in fixed-asset investment. China is expected to reach 125 million tons of exports in 2025, while a decline in demand is forecasted for 2026.
Taiwan’s total metals and products exports increased by 2.2% to USD 14.5 billion, although iron and steel product exports fell by 8.3%. This segment represents a small share of total metal exports and is under significant pressure in the international market, especially due to low-priced steel oversupply from China. China Steel Corporation (CSC), faced with weak demand, held HRC, CRC, plate, and HDG prices steady for a second month for December deliveries.
The Thai market has recently moved downward. Cheaper suppliers entering the market are pushing prices down, with Indonesian- and China-origin materials falling to the USD 440–445/ton CIF range, intensifying this pressure.
Vietnam’s total steel exports decreased by 12.4% in October to 677,228 tons. Shipments to Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand fell sharply; in contrast, exports to Cambodia increased by 6.8%, and billet shipments to the Philippines rose by 21.4%. The country is facing challenges both from regional demand declines and international regulations such as CBAM.
Iran-origin products falling below USD 440/ton CIF caused Indonesia’s prices to drop rapidly by USD 8–10/ton. Meanwhile, rising Indian coke demand supports Indonesian coke pricing, although domestic coal prices remain around USD 108.
Australian coking coal prices continue to trend upward, supported by strong Indian demand despite slow activity in the Asian seaborne market. Additionally, Rio Tinto’s agreement with Calix to make Pilbara ore suitable for low-emission steel production draws attention as a step toward low-carbon production technologies in the region.
China is supporting the market with high export volumes and strong supply, while regional weak demand, price competition, and international regulatory pressure leave it searching for direction. In countries with fragile demand, producers continue to maintain cost control and price stability.
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