According to the company’s assessment, China’s shift away from an infrastructure-driven growth model is putting lasting pressure on steel demand.
The report projects that China’s share of global steel demand, which stood at 49% last year, will decline to 31% by 2050. In contrast, India’s steel consumption is expected to nearly triple, with its global share rising from 8% to 21%. Southeast Asia’s share of demand is also projected to increase from 5% to 10%, driven largely by rapid industrialization in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.
Wood Mackenzie Senior Research Analyst Charvi Trivedi noted that steel overproduction in China has reached unprecedented levels, stating: “There could be a surplus of 50 million tons in 2025, and in the long term this figure could rise to 350 million tons.”
In India, the steel market grew by 8% last year and is expected to grow by 7% this year. Growth is being supported by government-backed infrastructure projects as well as rising production in the automotive and machinery sectors.
The report also highlighted the contraction of global steel trade. Steel exports, which totaled 381 million tons in 2024, are projected to decline by 5.4% in 2025. In the long term, trade intensity is forecast to fall from today’s level of 25% to 12% by 2050.
Analysts emphasized that overcapacity and low profit margins are hindering investments in “green steel” production, particularly in Europe and China. They stressed that stronger government support and clearer regulations are essential to accelerate the industry’s transition to low-carbon production.
Source: AA
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