According to the company's assessment, China's shift away from an infrastructure-heavy growth model is creating lasting pressure on steel demand.
The report forecasts that China's share of global steel demand will fall from 49 percent last year to 31 percent by 2050. In contrast, India's steel consumption is expected to nearly triple, with its global share rising from 8% to 21%. It also notes that Southeast Asia's share of demand will increase from 5% to 10%, with this growth stemming primarily from rapid industrialization in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.
Charvi Trivedi, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, stated that the surplus in steel production in China has reached unprecedented levels, saying, “There could be a surplus of 50 million tons in 2025, and in the long term, this figure could reach 350 million tons.”
India's steel market grew by 8 percent last year and is expected to grow by 7 percent this year. The growth is supported by government-backed infrastructure projects and increased production in the automotive and machinery sectors.
The report also highlighted the contraction in global steel trade. Steel exports, which stood at 381 million tons in 2024, are projected to decline by 5.4% in 2025. In the long term, trade intensity is expected to decline from the current level of 25% to 12% by 2050.
Analysts point out that overcapacity and low profit margins are hindering investments in “green steel” production, particularly in Europe and China. They emphasize that stronger government support and clear regulations are essential to accelerate the sector's transition to low-carbon production.
Source: AA
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