Scrap consumption in China is expected to see a 3% decrease in 2024 compared to the previous year, as noted by analysts during the 2025 China Metal New Materials and Circular Economy conference. The projected annual consumption of scrap is estimated at 236.42 million tons. Of this amount, approximately 77.9 million tons are anticipated to be utilized in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production, while blast furnace (BF) production is expected to consume the bulk of this figure.
Industry representatives are cautiously optimistic about the performance of the Chinese steel sector in 2024. Although problems such as overcapacity and stagnant domestic demand continue, these challenges are being balanced with changes in production and export strategies.
Forecasts suggest that steel exports may decline in the coming years. In 2025, export volumes are expected to fall to between 90 and 100 million tons, a decrease from the anticipated 110 million tons in 2024. Despite the projected reduction, these figures would still represent high levels historically, reflecting the industry's continued struggle with overproduction and soft domestic demand.
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