CBRT interest rate forecast from Barclays

Barclays has differentiated itself from JPM and expects a limited interest rate increase from the CBRT.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley expected a 500 basis point interest rate increase at the meeting on September 21, while Barclays predicted a 250 basis point step.

Although Barclays analysts do not rule out a much sharper move, they expect "gradual increases" after the above-expected rate hike in August.

“The CBRT will prefer to continue the tightening cycle in a more gradual manner to limit the impact on banks, companies and households,” said analysts. “In addition, macroprudential tightening continues at full speed and the central bank probably thinks this reduces the need for a larger increase.” ” he evaluated.

Barclays continues to estimate that the policy rate in Turkey will be 35 percent at the end of this year and 40 percent at the end of 2024.