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Australian thermal coal exports expected to increase over the next 2 years

Australia's thermal coal exports are expected to continue to grow over the next two years, but the overall value is expected to fall, according to a report released by the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

Australian thermal coal exports expected to increase over the next 2 years

The report forecasts a gradual recovery from recent supply disruptions, with Australia's thermal coal exports rising from 182 million tons (Mt) in Fiscal Year 2022-23 to 203 million tons by Fiscal Year 2024-25.

The Newcastle reference price for coal with a heating value of 6,000 Kcal/kg NAR has fallen to less than $150 per tonne from $460 per tonne in 2022. The report predicts that prices will continue to fall from around $180 per tonne in 2023 to around $115 per tonne by 2025.

As prices fall, the export value of thermal coal is expected to fall from a peak of over A$65 billion in Fiscal Year 2022-23 to around A$28 billion by Fiscal Year 2024-25.

The value of Australia's overall energy exports is projected to fall to less than A$400 billion in 2023-24 and to A$352 billion in 2024-25 due to declining global demand and increasing commodity supplies pressing down prices.

Global thermal coal imports are expected to decline by around 2.5% annually in 2023, mainly due to lower demand for seaborne coal from China. However, rising demand from India and other Asian countries will partially offset this decline.

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