For most industry participants, this week represents the final full working week of the year, with transaction volumes slowing markedly across both flat and long product segments. Market participants broadly agree that any meaningful commercial activity is unlikely to resume before mid-January.
Beyond seasonal factors, the latest regulatory clarifications related to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) appear to have further reinforced the prevailing cautious sentiment in the market.
Flat Products: Prices Consolidated, Buyers Remain Cautious
Across Europe’s key steel markets, particularly Germany and Italy, flat steel prices continue to move sideways within a narrow range.
In Germany, hot-rolled coil (HRC) is assessed at €610–620/t EXW, cold-rolled coil (CRC) at €710–720/t EXW, and hot-dip galvanized (HDG) at €720–735/t EXW. In Italy, HRC is trading at €605–610/t EXW, CRC at €710–725/t EXW, and HDG at €700–725/t EXW.
In Poland, domestic prices remain relatively elevated in zloty terms. Black coil is quoted at PLN 2,900 (≈€680–685/t), CRS at PLN 3,580 (≈€845–848/t), and HDGS at PLN 3,960 (≈€935/t), with offers predominantly focused on January shipment.
Despite this pricing stability, the market is struggling to generate upward momentum. The primary reason remains weak buying interest and a widespread tendency among buyers to postpone purchasing decisions.
ArcelorMittal Move: Price Increase Announced, Market Reaction Limited
ArcelorMittal, one of Europe’s leading steel producers, announced a €20/t increase in offer prices for March-delivery HRC across Europe. However, given the current market environment, this move is not expected to translate into a significant short-term increase in transaction volumes.
Buyers remain focused on understanding where total CBAM-related costs will ultimately settle as 2026 approaches. As a result, producer-led price increases are, for now, finding only limited traction on the demand side.
Slab and Raw Materials: Selective Buying Continues
While overall market sentiment remains cautious, selective and negotiation-driven activity continues in the slab segment. Last week, it was confirmed that Metinvest secured a slab booking from NISCO at USD 506–507/t CFR for its Italian operations.
Such transactions indicate that the market is not entirely inactive; rather, purchasing is being carried out on a needs-based and opportunistic basis.
Long Products: Prices Stable, Demand Remains Weak
Conditions in the long products segment mirror those seen in flat products. Rebar prices are assessed at €605/t CPT in Germany and €560–600/t EXW in Italy. In Poland, rebar is trading at €560–585/t, while wire rod is quoted at €615–625/t.
Seasonal slowdown in construction activity, combined with year-end budget closures, continues to weigh on demand for long products.
CBAM: Clarity Achieved, Confidence Still Lacking
The development having the greatest impact on market sentiment is the publication of CBAM implementing rules by the European Commission. While many market participants acknowledge that the rules at least provide clarity on what lies ahead, there is also widespread frustration regarding the timing.
With CBAM entering its definitive phase on 1 January 2026, and companies becoming financially liable for emissions, cost and compliance risks for non-EU-origin material have become far more pronounced. The newly confirmed default values, verification obligations, and administrative requirements have strengthened a cautious stance toward new import orders.
As a result, buyers are no longer assessing offers solely on EXW or CFR price levels, but increasingly factoring in emissions intensity, data verifiability, and post-2026 regulatory risk when making procurement decisions.
2028 Signals: Perception of a Closing Supply Chain Gains Strength
The Commission’s indication that CBAM could be expanded from 2028 to cover 180 downstream metal products, including washing machines, car doors, and kitchen equipment, has had a notable longer-term impact on market sentiment. This expansion is expected to increase EU revenues by 23%, generating approximately €0.5 billion in additional income by 2030.
However, the strongest reaction within the market has been driven by the perception that the supply chain is gradually being closed, often summarized as “today steel, tomorrow coatings, and next components.” This narrative is already influencing long-term sourcing and production planning, particularly within the automotive and white goods sectors.
Overall Assessment
The sideways movement in European steel prices ahead of Christmas is primarily driven by seasonal slowdown, CBAM-related uncertainty, and deferred buying decisions. Market participants are looking toward mid-January, when desks are fully staffed again and CBAM cost implications can be reassessed with greater precision.
In the short term, interest in new non-EU-origin orders is expected to remain limited, while EU-produced material, despite its higher price level, is increasingly favored due to its perceived regulatory predictability. This dynamic is especially evident in the flat products segment, where a cautious stance is likely to persist until price visibility for the first quarter of 2026 improves.
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