Europe continues to be the main market for Türkiye’s HRC (hot-rolled coil) exports. During the January–August 2025 period, a significant portion of Türkiye’s total HRC exports was directed to European countries. In this period, Italy stood out with 561,922 tons, followed by Spain (340,585 tons) and Portugal (193,102 tons), while Egypt (111,192 tons) and Libya (66,533 tons) also emerged as notable export destinations outside Europe.
The European steel market continues to be shaped by the upcoming CBAM regulation and the effects of import quotas. These dynamics are particularly limiting the competitiveness of importing countries with high carbon-emission production, while providing price support to producers within Europe.
Türkiye has fully exhausted its EU HRC quota. Subsequent deliveries will either be scheduled for 2026 or face a 25% additional duty. The latest offer was reported at €520/t CFR Italy (including antidumping duties).
British Steel, operating in the UK, is trying to close its current orders as quickly as possible due to significant tonnage demand within Europe. The company is prioritizing shipments to the US and Canadian markets with the available material.
ArcelorMittal has updated its European HRC offers to €630/t delivered for December delivery and €650/t delivered for January delivery. With these developments, all European buyers have confirmed their shipments for November and December.
Although the official stance of the UK government has not yet been clarified, it is widely expected to adopt a coordinated approach with the EU or implement parallel measures to restrict non-EU imports. While the mechanism of the UK’s response may differ, its overall market impact is largely expected to align with that of continental Europe.
Overall, upward pressure on the European steel market is expected to persist over the next two quarters, with prices likely to rise significantly under the influence of CBAM and limited supply. However, if idle capacity is reactivated, these price increases may be partially balanced.
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