The European steel market entered November under weak demand conditions, as the price increases recently announced by mills have failed to attract the expected buyer interest. In particular, purchasing activity in the hot-rolled coil (HRC) segment remains limited, making it difficult for producers to meet their sales targets. Although is not clear yet an eventual impact on the european market of the fire at Thyssenkrup Plant and the current situation at Arcelor Mittal Fos-sur-Mer. However, according to market sources, the current stagnation may persist through the end of the year, while the possibility of further price declines in the first quarter of 2026 cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, other european sources tell that perhaps the demand for domestic steel products will increase from January, not beause a better market condition but more for CBAM and safeguards effect.
On the import side, offers from Asian origins continue to play a key role in shaping price direction in Europe. Cold-rolled coil (CRC) offers from Pakistan were reported at €630–635/ton CFR Italy, while Japanese-origin material was heard in the range of €605–620/ton CFR Italy. Although these prices do not offer a significant discount compared to domestic European levels, some buyers continue to make limited purchases to keep alternative sourcing channels open.
Meanwhile, Indonesian-origin HRC offers remain noticeably lower. A sale reportedly concluded by Dexin Steel was heard at €470/ton CFR Italy, with shipment planned for early 2026. The price is understood to exclude CBAM-related costs and covers a volume of around 40,000 tons. However, market participants are cautious amid speculation that Indonesia may lose its “developing country” status and be included in the EU’s safeguard quota system. Industry sources do not expect major changes in the first quarter of 2026, though new measures could come into effect as of April 1, 2026.
Overall, while prices have risen, demand across the European steel market remains subdued. Buyers are reportedly purchasing only to meet immediate needs and avoiding stockbuilding. CBAM-related cost pressures, fluctuations in energy prices, and the seasonal slowdown in year-end orders are all limiting upward price momentum. Market participants expect a renewed search for balance in trade flows once the new regulatory framework takes effect in the first quarter of 2026.
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