The European Commission announced that the first carbon certificate price under CBAM will be published on April 7, 2026. Prices will be calculated in the first calendar week following each quarter and shared publicly on the first business day of the following week. This marks a shift from CBAM being a theoretical regulation to generating tangible costs for companies.
Meanwhile, expanding the mechanism’s coverage remains a top priority on the EU agenda. A proposal presented by the Commission in January foresees CBAM extending beyond primary products to include downstream goods. Approximately 180 new products are expected to be added to the system, with the main goal of preventing regulatory circumvention. If consensus is reached among stakeholders, this expansion is expected to come into effect on January 1, 2028.
On the political side, the process continues to progress in the European Parliament. Mohammed Chahim has been reappointed as CBAM rapporteur and has invited stakeholders to share their views and proposals. This underscores the important role that sector feedback will play in shaping the final regulation. In his role as rapporteur, Chahim is recognized as a key figure supporting a fair industrial, energy, and climate transition under the European Green Deal while overseeing the CBAM regulation aimed at preventing carbon leakage.
In terms of the implementation timeline, 2026 and 2027 will be critical transition years for companies. Under the 2026 schedule, the first carbon certificate price will be announced on April 7, followed by the second-quarter price on July 6. A major infrastructure milestone is set for September 30, 2026, when CBAM verifiers can request access to the system, with the third-quarter carbon price shared publicly on October 5.
From January 1, 2027, a 20% adjustment for default values (excluding fertilizers) will take effect, and fourth-quarter prices will be published on January 4, followed by weekly updates. The deadline for the first-quarter CBAM certificate holding requirement is March 31, while the first annual declaration for 2026 imports is scheduled for September 30. The deadline for the resale of surplus certificates is October 31, and their cancellation will take place in November. At the end of the year, in December 2027, a report evaluating CBAM’s impact on carbon leakage will be published alongside a revision report on default values and sector-specific adjustment rates.
The implementation of CBAM is expected to increase import costs and alter competitive dynamics. With the planned scope expansion in 2028, not only raw steel but also processed products are expected to be subject to carbon costs.
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