Risks concentrated particularly around energy corridors and critical trade routes will lead not only to regional but also global economic rebalancing. It must be emphasized that if oil prices exceed USD 100 per barrel, the global economy is likely to experience a serious slowdown. In other words, recession will emerge as a significant risk, including in Western economies.
The President of the Association of Those Who Shape Foreign Trade (DIŞYÖNDER), Dr. Hakan Çınar, emphasized that wars are no longer fought solely on the battlefield but also represent an economic arena of struggle. He stated:“The war in the Middle East will bring significant increases in energy prices, particularly oil and natural gas. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply passes, coming under risk would cause prices to rise rapidly. This increase in energy costs would put renewed upward pressure on global inflation and likely force central banks to maintain tight monetary policies.”
Global Trade and Logistics Networks Under Pressure
A wartime environment directly affects logistics processes, one of the most critical components of international trade. Disruptions in maritime transportation routes would lead to substantial increases in freight and insurance costs. If developments similar to those experienced during the pandemic were to recur, transportation costs would multiply and delivery times would inevitably lengthen.
During periods of war, investor risk appetite declines, while demand for safe-haven assets increases. In such an environment, assets like gold and the US dollar tend to appreciate, while emerging market currencies and stock exchanges come under pressure.
For Türkiye, the economic impact of war presents both risks and opportunities. Rising energy import costs, widening current account deficits, increasing inflation, and pressure on exchange rates and financing conditions are all likely to intensify.
Exporters Must Act Cautiously
With rising oil prices, it is certain that our import costs will increase. At the same time, our exports and exporters will also be negatively affected. As energy costs rise, we can expect an environment in which overall production costs increase further. Higher freight costs, rising insurance premiums, and longer delivery times will weaken our competitiveness in export markets.
Energy-intensive sectors, particularly chemicals and plastics, will be more severely affected. A potential recession in the European Union would be felt more strongly in our export performance. However, if the conflict does not last long and concludes in a short period, the economic effects may not be prolonged. Our shared hope is for a swift resolution; otherwise, it would cause significant damage to Türkiye’s fight against inflation, as well as to exports and the broader economy.
A New Economic Order Is Taking Shape
Dr. Hakan Çınar concluded his assessment with the following remarks:
“Today, wars are won not only on the battlefield but also in the economy. Countries that control energy, manage logistics, and sustain production will be the winners of the new era. For Türkiye, positioning itself correctly in this process and turning risks into opportunities is of critical importance.”
While global war scenarios may create severe short-term shocks in the economy, in the long term they reshape trade balances and establish new centers of power. In this period, countries’ economic resilience, strategic planning capabilities, and production strength will be decisive.
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