China's steel consumption fell by 6.2% in January-September 2024

China's apparent steel consumption fell by 6.2% in January-September 2024 compared to the same period last year, reaching 688 million tons. The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) predicts that steel demand may stabilize or decline slightly in 2025, indicating that risks to exports have increased due to rising trade tensions.

The imbalance between supply and demand has led to lower steel prices, negatively affecting the profitability of manufacturers. This has led some steel manufacturers to increase exports. CISA emphasized that steel prices have temporarily increased following the government's efforts to stimulate the economy, and therefore manufacturers should maintain production discipline. However, it was stated that the recent increases in orders have not significantly changed overall demand.

Despite efforts to revive the economy, prices of basic commodities such as rebar have lost momentum in recent days. CISA expects annual steel production in China to gradually decline from levels that recently exceeded 1 billion tons to 800 million tons by 2035. In addition, steel production decreased by 3.6 percent y-o-y from January to September, while exports increased by 21.2 percent to 80.71 million tons, the highest level in the past eight years.