Pig iron prices in Black Sea ports have dropped to $330/t in early 2025, marking their lowest level since August 2020. The decline, which started in December 2024, accelerated in January, bringing prices down to $322-325/t FOB.
The primary driver behind this price drop is weak demand from Türkiye and India. In Türkiye, the decreasing cost of scrap has reduced the necessity for pig iron, leading buyers to show interest in offers but refrain from finalizing transactions. Meanwhile, sluggish steel demand in India continues to exert downward pressure on the pig iron market.
Sanctions against Russian pig iron exports are further contributing to market instability. In 2025, the EU introduced a quota of 700 thousand tons for Russian pig iron imports, with plans to enforce a full ban starting in 2026. This restriction is expected to benefit alternative suppliers from Brazil, Ukraine, and India, who could gain a larger share of the European market.
Looking forward, the market could see some changes. A potential reduction in Russian export duties or an economic rebound in China might support demand. However, ongoing geopolitical factors, trade restrictions, and fluctuations in commodity prices will likely keep the market volatile in the near term.
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