The company highlighted that India is becoming increasingly strategic in seaborne iron ore trade, while it expects Chinese steel production to remain around current levels for the rest of the decade.
According to BHP, population growth, urbanization and rising living standards, along with the expansion of blast furnace capacity in developing countries, will continue to support demand for steelmaking raw materials. The company also noted that iron ore prices have remained resilient, supported by China’s steel production and cost support.
India’s iron ore imports expected to rise rapidly
India was one of the key countries highlighted in BHP’s assessment of the iron ore market. According to the company, India is becoming an increasingly important strategic participant in seaborne iron ore trade.
India reached its highest iron ore export level of 98 million tonnes in 2009, while imports stood at less than 1 million tonnes during the same period. However, the country’s iron ore imports reached 12 million tonnes in 2025, more than doubling from the previous year.
According to estimates from industry consultants cited by BHP, India’s iron ore imports could exceed 80 million tonnes by 2030. Global scrap usage also remaining below its long-term growth trend since 2022 was identified as another factor supporting iron ore demand.
The outlook for iron ore demand in India is underpinned by the country’s rapidly expanding steel capacity. India’s steel production capacity increased by 10% year on year to approximately 220 million tonnes per year in fiscal 2026. The country aims to increase its capacity to 500 million tonnes per year by 2047. BHP noted that a significant portion of this capacity is expected to be blast furnace-based.
Around 90 million tonnes per year of new steelmaking capacity is also planned in Southeast Asia through the mid-2030s. According to BHP, approximately 70% of this capacity is expected to be blast furnace-based. This could contribute to continued demand for iron ore and other steelmaking raw materials.
Iron ore prices above USD 80/t needed for 260 million tonnes of supply
BHP reported that cost support in the iron ore market had strengthened significantly compared with the previous year as 2026 began.
According to the company’s estimates, around 260 million tonnes of global supply requires iron ore prices above USD 80/t CFR to remain economically viable. This compares with approximately 180 million tonnes in 2025.
BHP attributed the increase to persistent inflation in energy and freight costs since the conflicts in the Middle East, as well as the cost structure of new production from projects in Africa and smaller Australian producers.
According to the company, for prices to remain significantly below USD 80/t CFR for an extended period, a substantial portion of the 260 million tonnes of high-cost supply would need to exit the market. This would require both weaker steel demand and faster growth in low-cost supply, while BHP considers it difficult for these two conditions to persist simultaneously for a prolonged period.
Around 250 million tonnes of existing supply could be depleted by 2035
Depletion of resources on the supply side of the iron ore market was another issue highlighted by BHP.
The company said costs at the 90th percentile of the iron ore cost curve in the fourth quarter of 2025 were approximately 40% above pre-pandemic levels in nominal terms. BHP noted that declining ore grades and resource depletion could require greater investment to maintain existing production in traditional producing regions.
Citing Wood Mackenzie estimates, BHP said around 250 million tonnes of existing iron ore supply in the seaborne market could be depleted between 2026 and 2035. According to the company, these developments are increasing the strategic importance of reliable and high-quality iron ore supply.
China’s steel production expected to remain around 1 billion tonnes
Despite continued weakness in China’s property sector, BHP noted that the country’s steel production has remained resilient at around 1 billion tonnes for the past seven years.
The company expects China’s crude steel production to remain around this level for the rest of the decade, supported by the country’s increasing focus on advanced manufacturing, digitalization, modern infrastructure and industrial development.
Indian demand supports metallurgical coal market
BHP said prices for metallurgical coal used in steelmaking had strengthened compared with 2025 levels. Strong Indian import demand and supply disruptions supported prices in the seaborne market.
Australia’s metallurgical coal exports, meanwhile, are facing pressures from geological challenges, operational disruptions and a stricter regulatory environment.
Copper demand expected to exceed 50 million tonnes by 2050
On copper, BHP expects global demand to exceed 50 million tonnes by 2050. Non-traditional copper demand driven by the energy transition and digitalization is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 6.5% between 2020 and 2035.
Potash demand could exceed 100 million tonnes by 2050
According to BHP, population growth, rising protein consumption and potassium depletion in soils will continue to support potash demand. The company expects potash demand to increase by around 70% from the beginning of the decade and exceed 100 million tonnes by 2050.
Energy security and data centers drive uranium outlook
In the uranium market, energy security and the rising electricity demand of data centers are increasing the importance of nuclear power. However, BHP continues to take a cautious view on nuclear energy due to high investment costs, regulatory barriers, lengthy project timelines and public opposition.
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