How would you describe the current ferrous scrap market across the U.K., Europe, the Indian subcontinent and the UAE?
The market remains cautious but fundamentally balanced. The European Union exported around 22.9 million tonnes of ferrous scrap in 2025, while the U.K. exported approximately 7.5 million tonnes, ensuring adequate supply to key importing regions.
However, prices today are being driven less by scrap availability and more by weaker steel demand, freight volatility, currency fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainty. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty around shipping routes, resulting in higher freight and insurance costs.
India is leading the way in scrap demand
How do you see demand evolving in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the UAE? Which market is likely to recover first?
India remains the strongest growth market. With steelmaking capacity expected to increase from around 200 million tonnes today to 300 million tonnes by 2030, demand for imported scrap is expected to remain healthy over the long term.
The UAE continues to benefit from strong construction activity, while Bangladesh remains stable despite cautious buying. Pakistan is recovering more slowly due to foreign exchange constraints and weaker domestic steel demand.
Among these markets, India is likely to recover first, supported by infrastructure investment and continued industrial growth.
Have trade flows or buying strategies changed in recent months?
Yes. Buyers have become much more cautious. Most mills are purchasing only against confirmed steel orders rather than building inventories.
Freight uncertainty, exchange-rate volatility and geopolitical risks have encouraged buyers to focus on shorter purchasing cycles, flexible contracts and reliable suppliers instead of simply chasing the lowest price.
How are scrap availability and export flows from the U.K. and Europe affecting buyers?
Supply from the U.K. and Europe remains sufficient, and exporters continue to supply South Asia and the Middle East regularly. The challenge today is managing the total landed cost, where freight, exchange rates and shipping reliability often have a greater impact than the scrap price itself.
“The market is generally supported by sufficient supply”
What is your outlook for ferrous scrap prices over the next quarter?
We expect prices to remain stable with a slight upward bias, provided finished steel demand improves after the summer period.
The biggest upside drivers will be stronger steel demand, improved infrastructure spending and lower freight costs. The key risks remain any escalation of the Middle East conflict, continued freight disruptions, currency volatility and slower global economic growth.
Overall, the market is well supplied, but confidence in steel demand and stability in global logistics will determine the direction of prices over the coming months.
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