Overview of Inflation Developments in December 2025
Markets had expected monthly inflation for December to be around 0.96% and annual inflation at approximately 31%. The announced figures came in slightly below these forecasts. The twelve-month average inflation was calculated at 34.88%.
Breakdown by Main Expenditure Groups
Examining the main expenditure groups with the highest annual weight, prices in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category increased by 28.31%, transportation by 28.44%, and housing by 49.45% as yearly. The contributions of these groups to annual inflation were 7.07 points for food, 4.36 points for transportation, and 7.52 points for housing.
On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.99%, while the transportation group recorded a 1.03% decline. Housing prices increased by 1.39% as monthly. Food contributed most to monthly inflation, whereas transportation exerted a downward effect.
Disinflation Process Continues
The December data show that inflation continued to rise at a pace close to November on a monthly basis, yet the overall trend remained controlled. Monthly increases staying below 1% indicate that there has been no significant deterioration in pricing behavior.
The decline in annual inflation is considered not to be solely due to base effects; the slowdown in the underlying trend appears more persistent. Factors supporting this outlook include relatively stable exchange rates, a balancing in domestic demand, and weaker cost pass-through effects.
Although preliminary data from the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (İTO) indicated a higher monthly increase, CPI remaining below 1% nationally suggests that the disinflation process is being maintained across the country.
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