Speaking to Bloomberg, Basson emphasized, “Shutting down a steel plant creates a chain reaction across other domestic sectors. Therefore, there is no viable short term solution.”
The steel sector was among the first targets of the import tariffs introduced earlier this year by US President Donald Trump, and many countries, including Vietnam, have begun imposing antidumping duties on Chinese steel. Basson said that this trend has reversed roughly 20 years of relative openness in global steel trade: “The open market that existed from 2000 to 2020 is now disappearing. Free movement of goods between continents is a critical issue for the sector.”
China’s demand decreases, exports reach record levels
According to Worldsteel, steel demand in China is expected to decrease by 2% in 2025 and by 1% in 2026. This decline is driving producers to export record volumes despite rising protectionism. China’s steel exports are moving toward an all-time high in 2025, with shipments exceeding 100 million tonnes in the first 11 months of the year. This momentum has also pushed the country’s total trade surplus above 1 trillion USD for the first time in history.
Meanwhile, iron ore futures in Singapore decreased by 0.9% on the first trading day of the week, falling to 102.45 USD per tonne.
A fragmented global market complicates carbon reduction
Rizwan Janjua, Head of Technology at Worldsteel, said that fragmentation in the global steel market is jeopardizing the sector’s climate goals. He noted that steel accounts for around 8% of global carbon emissions and emphasized, “Cleaning up the sector requires unprecedented levels of international cooperation. However, as markets become more divided, ensuring this coordination becomes more difficult.”
Janjua added that the technologies required for emission reduction already exist, but issues related to energy supply and policy misalignment continue to slow progress: “If everyone doesn't act together, each country will try to optimize only its own system.”
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