According to the report, tensions in the Middle East are not only causing humanitarian losses and economic costs in directly affected countries, but are also testing the resilience of the global economy. Disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy infrastructure have led to sharp increases in prices, while also negatively affecting the global supply of other key commodities. Financial market volatility has increased, with tighter financial conditions particularly noted in some Asian economies.
The report highlights that uncertainty regarding the scope and duration of the tensions is amplifying risks. Persistently high energy prices are expected to raise operating costs and put upward pressure on consumer inflation. Rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions come at a sensitive time for economies such as the United Kingdom, United States, Türkiye, Brazil, and Mexico, where inflation remains above target levels.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development maintained its global growth forecast for 2026 at 2.9%, as announced in December 2025. However, this points to a slowdown compared to global growth of 3.3% recorded in 2025. The organization also revised its 2027 growth projection downward by 0.1 percentage points to 3%.
While rising energy prices and the unpredictable nature of conflict in the Middle East are expected to increase costs and weaken demand, these effects could be partially offset by technology investments and the growth momentum carried over from 2025. The OECD’s projections are based on the assumption that disruptions in energy markets will gradually ease and that prices for oil, gas, and fertilizers will decline gradually starting from mid-2026.
For Türkiye, the OECD revised its growth forecast downward by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% for this year, while the 2027 projection was lowered by 0.2 points to 3.8%. Inflation in Türkiye is expected to reach 26.7% this year and decline to 16.9% by 2027.
In the United States, the economy is expected to grow by 2% this year and 1.7% in 2027, with forecasts revised upward for 2026 but downward for 2027. Growth in the Euro Area is projected to slow to 0.8% this year due to high energy prices, before rising to 1.2% in 2027 with support from increased defense spending. Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to grow by 4.4% this year and 4.3% next year.
The report also notes that inflation across Group of Twenty economies could rise by 1.2 percentage points to 4% this year compared to previous expectations, before easing to 2.7% in 2027 as energy price pressures subside.
Among the downside risks to the global economy, the OECD points to ongoing disruptions in exports from the Middle East, which could further increase energy prices and deepen constraints in commodity supply. Such a scenario could push inflation higher while weighing on growth. The report also warns that weaker-than-expected returns from artificial intelligence investments and broader financial market repricing could dampen demand.
The OECD emphasized that central banks should act cautiously against energy price shocks and firmly anchor inflation expectations. It added that monetary policy adjustments may be required if growth weakens significantly or if price pressures become more widespread. Highlighting limited fiscal space, the report stressed the importance of stronger government action to ensure debt sustainability, control spending, and improve public sector efficiency.
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