The Türkiye long steel market is progressing under the influence of weak demand, high financing costs and fluctuations in producer prices in 2026. How do you evaluate the first eight months of 2026 from your perspective? What have been the most significant changes in the market compared to last year?
The most significant issue for us in the first eight months of 2026 has been the divergence between production and actual market demand. Although Türkiye’s crude steel production increased by 8.1% in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, we did not see demand in the domestic market at the same level of strength. The 6% year-on-year decline in construction production in June and the weakening in overall domestic demand also support the picture we have observed in the market.
In previous years, when expectations of rising prices emerged, we would see the market stock up more quickly. Today, however, financing costs have significantly changed this behavior. Even if customers think prices will rise, they often do not want to carry stocks far beyond their needs. The length of time goods remain in stock now directly creates a significant financing cost.
Therefore, trade has become more short-term in 2026. Customers are acting in smaller lots, as needed and by monitoring the direction of the market. In our view, this is one of the most important changes compared to last year.
On the other hand, exports continue to be an important balancing factor for long products. Türkiye’s rebar exports increased by 7.4% in the first seven months of the year, reaching approximately 2.48 million tons. In other words, in an environment where the domestic market is weak, the producer’s export capability becomes even more important.
“We look at the conditions under which the price is formed rather than the price itself”
Although producer prices in the domestic market have increased, we are going through a period in which demand has not strengthened to the same extent. In your opinion, which factors will be decisive in the sustainability of current price levels in the coming period?
Here, we look at the conditions under which the price is formed rather than the price itself. For a price level to be sustainable, costs and demand need to support each other at some point. Increases in costs driven by scrap, energy and exchange rates may force producers to price upwards; however, if the end user does not purchase sufficient quantities at the same price level, it becomes difficult for the increase to continue.
We are seeing a typical example of this in August. While domestic rebar prices increased, demand did not accelerate to the same extent. A contraction in supply for certain sizes also supported prices. As of August 25, producer offers in the İskenderun region were seen at approximately $585–590/ton, while on the export side, the levels accepted by buyers were below producer expectations.
The main issues we will be monitoring in the coming period will be scrap prices, exchange rates, producers’ capacity utilization, export orders and, in particular, actual consumption in the domestic market.
The financing side is at least as important as these factors. In an environment where the policy rate is at 37% and tight monetary policy continues, the cost of carrying stocks puts significant pressure on trade.
Therefore, in order for us to say that a price increase is healthy, we need to see not only an increase in the producer price list, but also an increase in the volume of sales realized at that price.
“It is no longer enough for Türkiye to compete solely on low prices”
Excess capacity in the global steel market, high Chinese exports and increasing protectionist trade policies in different markets are changing the competitive environment for the Turkish steel industry. In your opinion, which areas should Turkish producers and suppliers focus on to maintain their competitiveness in this new environment?
We believe that global competition will become even more challenging in the coming period. There are two separate pressures here. On the one hand, there are countries with very high production and export capacities, particularly China; on the other hand, countries are increasing trade measures to protect their own steel industries.
Although China’s total steel exports declined in the first seven months of 2026 compared to last year, they remained at a very high level of approximately 65 million tons. More importantly, exports of steel bars, which are relevant to long products, increased by 12.3% over the same period. This is a development that needs to be taken into consideration in terms of the product groups in which we directly compete.
On the European side, we see that protectionism has increased significantly. The EU has introduced a new steel safeguard system against global excess capacity; the new structure, which limits the annual tariff-free quota to 18.3 million tons and provides for a 50% tariff on imports outside the quota, will significantly change trade flows. Türkiye is among the countries that will be directly affected by this new environment.
Therefore, it is no longer enough for Türkiye to compete solely on low prices. On the producer side, energy efficiency, lower-carbon production, quality, cost control and alternative export markets will come to the forefront.
From a supplier perspective, we see another area of competition. Customers are no longer looking only at “where is the cheapest material?” Being able to find the material on time, having quick access to the right product, avoiding disruptions in shipments and the financial reliability of the company they work with are becoming increasingly important.
Therefore, in the coming period, financial strength, proper inventory management, logistics capabilities and the trust-based relationship established with customers will be among the most important competitive advantages for suppliers.
“We expect cautious purchasing behavior to continue”
What kind of picture do you expect in the Türkiye steel market in the coming period in terms of demand, prices and trade flows? What are your key expectations for the remainder of 2026 and 2027?
We do not expect the market to move in a single direction during the remainder of 2026. On the one hand, scrap, energy, exchange rates and production costs may support prices; on the other hand, high financing costs and weak domestic demand may limit price increases.
Therefore, for the remainder of the year, we expect a market in which rapid increases and pullbacks occur from time to time, but where cautious purchasing behavior generally continues.
Exports will remain important. Türkiye’s total steel exports increased by 1.6% in the first seven months of the year, reaching approximately 11.37 million tons. However, the direction of exports is changing; while declines are being seen in some traditional European markets, increases are occurring in markets such as the UK, Egypt, Ukraine and the US.
This also shows that producers will need to turn to alternative markets more quickly in the coming period.
“Our goal is not simply to increase tonnage”
Finally, could you talk about your growth and development targets for the upcoming period? What investments and targets are on your agenda in terms of new products, new markets, project-based activities or services?
As Arslansan, our goal for the upcoming period is not simply to increase tonnage, but to establish a stronger and more sustainable trading structure.
One of the most important things that our many years of experience in the industry have shown us is that growth cannot be measured solely by sales figures. Especially during periods like these, being able to sell the right product to the right customer, with the right terms and in the right quantity, while maintaining financial stability, is much more important.
Therefore, while maintaining our existing customer portfolio, we aim to reach new customers and markets, develop our product diversity in line with market needs, and become more effective in project-based supply.
On the service side, one of our main priorities is to be able to supply the products our customers need as quickly and seamlessly as possible. We will continue to develop our inventory management and logistics organization accordingly.
At the same time, we are closely monitoring new product and market opportunities that may emerge in the coming period. However, rather than pursuing uncontrolled volume growth in the name of expansion, a model that maintains financial discipline and builds long-term customer relationships is more valuable to us.
To summarize Arslansan’s main goal for the upcoming period; we want to further strengthen our position not merely as a company that supplies materials to the market, but as a reliable and strong solution partner that understands its customers’ needs and market conditions.
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