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European steel market shows stable outlook while upward price trend becomes more pronounced

The European steel market has recently been characterized by an overall wait-and-see sentiment, with prices largely moving sideways as participants continue to search for clear direction. Weak end-user demand and a cautious buying stance have supported this stagnation, while cost-driven upward pressure has remained in the background.

European steel market shows stable outlook while upward price trend becomes more pronounced

Across regional markets, European steel prices are generally moving within a narrow and sideways range. Within this context, price increases have become more visible particularly in the long products segment. Driven by rising energy costs triggered by the US-Iran tensions, producers have started implementing increases of €20–50/t across rebar, sections, and wire rod. At the same time, shorter offer validity periods indicate that uncertainty on the cost side remains elevated.

While product-based differentiation continues in Germany and Italy, prices are broadly stable, with movements limited rather than driven by abrupt shifts in direction.

In Germany, rebar prices are reported at €650–665/t CPT, while offer levels are said to have reached up to €680/t CPT. On the flat steel side, plate prices are balanced at €760–770/t EXW, while hot-rolled coil (HRC) stands at €710–720/t EXW, cold-rolled coil (CRC) at approximately €815/t EXW, and galvanized products (HDG) at €820–830/t EXW, maintaining a stable trajectory.

In Italy, rebar prices are moving in a wider range of €670–700/t EXW, while HRC is at €700–710/t EXW, CRC at around €810/t EXW, and HDG at €805–810/t EXW. In Spain, price levels are comparatively higher, with rebar at €715–725/t CPT, HRC at €700–705/t EXW, CRC at €815–825/t EXW, HDG at €820–830/t EXW, and heavy plate at €750–780/t EXW.

In Eastern Europe, Poland’s rebar prices are reported at €635–650/t CPT, while wire rod is priced at €660–700/t CPT. In Kosovo, B500c rebar is indicated at €700–720/t EXW.

On the supply side, slab and HRC offers continue to reflect underlying cost pressure in the market. NLMK’s slab offers are reported at $555–560/t CFR, while HRC offers to Türkiye are discussed at around $580/t CFR, although no confirmed transactions at these levels have been verified.

In the heavy plate segment, rising slab costs are pushing price expectations higher. While €800/t EXW levels are being discussed for summer deliveries, transactions are still not concluded at these levels, with the market primarily forming around €750–760/t.

Import developments are also playing a key role in shaping market dynamics. Due to quota uncertainty and rising costs, imports have slowed significantly, providing domestic European producers with greater pricing flexibility. The recent $20–30/t increase in import prices, combined with limited buyer interest in new bookings, underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market. In this environment, many buyers are shifting toward domestic supply to minimize risk, while transaction volumes remain limited despite available offers.

On the supply side, producers are maintaining a disciplined and controlled strategy. The absence of aggressive capacity expansion and weak stocking activity in the first half of the year are keeping the market balanced in the short term. However, this also introduces the risk of tighter conditions in the second quarter as quota limits become more restrictive. As a result, current price increases are largely viewed as “market tests,” with more sustained upward movements expected in the third quarter when supply constraints are anticipated to intensify.

In conclusion, while the European steel market is currently showing a stable picture, upward potential is gradually strengthening within a balancing phase. Short-term price increase attempts are becoming more visible, while the broader market direction is expected to shift more clearly to the upside in the second half of the year. In this context, the Tube & Wire Düsseldorf fair held between 13–17 April is seen as an important reference point that is likely to reshape market participants’ expectations. Feedback from the event is expected to play a decisive role in pricing behavior and demand outlook for the post-quota period, providing a clearer framework for the market’s ongoing search for direction.

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