Record volatility in foreign exchange: impacts on the steel industry

On March 19, 2025, significant fluctuations were observed in foreign exchange rates. The US dollar, which started the day at 36.7510 TL, surged by 14.5% during the day, reaching a record high of 41.4 TL. However, it later pulled back and, by 12:22 PM, had dropped to 38.878 TL. Similarly, the Euro/TL rate showed an upward movement, reaching 44.5.

These sharp fluctuations had a major impact on Türkiye's financial markets. Blue-chip stocks on Borsa Istanbul fell by around 6%, marking their worst daily performance since the end of 2023. This volatility is believed to be related to the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. The rise in political uncertainty has created anxiety in the markets, strengthening investors' risk-avoidance tendencies.

Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek emphasized in a social media post that all necessary measures were being taken to ensure the healthy functioning of the markets and that the current economic program was being implemented with determination.

Uncertainty in the steel industry

The sharp rise in foreign exchange rates is also affecting the steel market in Türkiye. Producers have been hesitant in setting prices, while traders have adopted a "wait-and-see" approach. Although cash sales continue based on the USD rate, trade volume has significantly slowed.

Volatility continues in the rebar market. A price of 595 USD per ton has been announced for rebar from Gebze in USD terms, while no TL-based pricing has been made. A producer in İskenderun announced a price of 28,000 TL, stating that the price could change depending on foreign exchange fluctuations. In Izmir, prices that were previously heard at 25,000 TL have now risen to 27,000 TL. While USD-based prices remain the same, the TL equivalent has sharply increased. In the flat product group, there is similar uncertainty in the hot rolled segment, where offers are being made 10-20 USD above the list prices. The cold rolled segment, however, has not been affected by market conditions. Furthermore, producers are being cautious with delivery times, providing June deadlines.

The volatility in foreign exchange and the uncertainty in global trade policies pose a significant risk to Türkiye's steel industry. Rising production costs and instability in export markets are causing concern among industry players, while the future direction of the markets remains uncertain in the coming days.