Chinese steel producers expect to maintain high export volumes and increase their shipments until 2025. Experts warn that this could deepen trade frictions. Steel exports are expected to be the highest since 2016 this year, while the weakening property sector is pressuring local consumption.
Exports increased 21.2% to 80.71 million tons in the first three quarters, according to customs data. China is expected to export about 90-100 million tons of steel in 2025, according to analysts' estimates. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co exported 5.84 million tons of steel in 2023, increasing 46.6%, and is targeting annual shipments of 10 million tons by 2028.
China's growing steel exports have been the cause of many countries, notably Turkey and Indonesia, imposing anti-dumping duties on the grounds that they harm local producers. This year, 28 trade remedy cases have been filed against Chinese steel products. Experts from Wood Mackenzie predict that these complaints will continue in 2025.
The World Steel Association estimates that global steel demand will increase by 1.2% to 1.77 billion tons in 2025. China will continue to offer competitive prices in its main export markets of Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America. However, the momentum of exports may slow down due to rising trade tensions.
Chinese authorities are planning to increase measures against value-added tax evasion. This may affect export figures.
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