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Europe's steel market: Stable prices, autumn expectations ahead

The European steel market is exhibiting a cautious pace amid the stagnation brought by the summer months. Trading volumes in both flat and long product segments have remained limited, while prices have largely held steady. Market activity is anticipated to pick up from September onwards.

Europe's steel market: Stable prices, autumn expectations ahead

In flat steel products particularly in the HRC segment trading remained subdued due to summer holidays and planned mill maintenance. However, prices largely remained stable. In Northern Europe, HRC prices stood firm at EXW 570 €/t, while in Southern Europe, Italy-origin prices hovered between EXW 540–545 €/t. In Germany, CRC prices ranged from 660–670 €/t, and HDG prices registered a slight increase to 670–690 €/t. In Italy, CRC remained at 630 €/t, with HDG holding at 645 €/t. Producers in Europe are quoting HRC offers for October delivery at 590–610 €/t, while November sales have not yet fully opened. This suggests that most market players remain cautious ahead of the expected demand upturn in autumn.

Two key factors are supporting seller confidence: feedback submitted to the European Commission largely favors tightening safeguard measures, and the upcoming enactment of the CBAM. Nonetheless, aggressively priced import offers from other countries continue to exert pressure on the European domestic market. Indonesian-origin HRC offers have fallen as low as 500 €/t CIF Italy, illustrating the intensity of the competition. Offers from Türkiye and Algeria range between 530–540 €/t CFR, while Indian-origin offers are around 520 €/t CFR.

In the long products segment, the market remained quiet throughout the summer. In Germany, rebar trades at about 610 €/t EXW, with CPT prices in the 620–630 €/t range. In Italy, rebar prices hover between 570–590 €/t, and in Spain, 12 mm rebar remains flat at 620 €/t EXW this week, reflecting strong domestic demand. In Poland, rebar trades at 590-595 €/t CPT, while wire rod prices range from 610-615 €/t. In Belgium, rebar is priced at 625–630 €/t CPT. A notable recovery in German construction activity during July stood out. The market recorded the mildest contraction in over two and a half years, and renewed growth in the commercial segment is being interpreted as a hopeful signal for the sector.

Another key item in the long products segment, I profiles (IPN), also displayed stable pricing before the start of August factory shutdowns for summer holidays. In Germany, IPN prices at Peiner and Celsa plants ranged from 710–720 €/t EXW, with Thüringen quoting 720–730 €/t EXW. In Italy, Duferdofin’s IPN prices were at 700–705 €/t EXW. These pre-holiday prices serve as the latest reference points before the market's seasonal lull. On the plate product front, plate prices in Germany remain at about 640 €/t EXW, while in Italy they stay stable in the 595–600 €/t EXW range. Slab imports remain priced at 505 $/t CIF Italy, maintaining stability following a recent $5 increase.

In conclusion, the European steel market has been characterized by low trade volumes and price stability throughout the summer. In the coming months, we are likely to see a search for a new equilibrium shaped by safeguard measures, CBAM implementation, and shifts in demand patterns.

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